Core Tip: In 2017, China's non-oriented electrical steel market trend showed a five-increase, four-down, three-flat overall fluctuations, and the trend of the oriented electrical steel market was nine ups and three flats. In 2018, the new era is downstream.
In 2017, the trend of China's non-oriented electrical steel market showed a broad fluctuation of ”five rises, four falls, three flats“， and the trend of oriented electrical steel market showed ”nine rises and three flats“ as a whole. In 2018, the new demand of the downstream industry in the new era will lead the development of the electrical steel industry. It is expected that the electrical steel market will return to the reasonable price range, and the price will fluctuate in the steady state, and it will continue to rise.
From the perspective of the global economic situation, the global economy will continue to recover in 2018 and will bring positive benefits to Chinese exports. The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 in the World Economic Outlook published in October 2017. Emerging markets and developing economies will continue to be the main drivers of global economic growth, India and ASEAN countries. The economies of Asian countries and regions will maintain rapid growth; the stable commodity prices will continue to push the economies of Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria and other major energy exporting countries, and the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will extend the production reduction agreement. Boosting oil prices, the follow-up of post-war reconstruction or infrastructure, power grids, real estate, and transportation construction in countries such as Iraq and Syria will have more demand for electrical steel. At the same time, the RMB officially became an international currency in October 2017, and the development of 66 relevant countries and regions involved in the ”Belt and Road Initiative“ initiative is expected to benefit China's exports.
Judging from the national industrial policy, the party's 19th National Congress has pointed out the direction for China's economic construction, and the electrical steel industry has shifted from high-speed development to high-quality development. In December 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission's Three-Year Action Plan for Enhancing Core Competitiveness in Manufacturing （2018~2020） clearly stated that 10 new steel materials including high-performance silicon steel will become the next three years of development. Focus. The concrete performance is as follows: the thickness of non-oriented electrical steel will develop from 0.50~0.35 mm to 0.30~0.20 mm; the oriented electrical steel will develop towards the oriented electrical steel with low noise transformer. The material requirements are: thickness ≤0.30 mm, P17/50 ≤0.90 watts/kg, magnetic induction strength B800≥1.90 Tesla, stacking factor ≥0.96; motor products are moving towards lightweight, small size, frequency conversion, high efficiency, high speed, energy saving, environmental protection, intelligent direction; transformer products are small, Three-dimensional coil core, low loss, low noise, energy saving and environmental protection, intelligent development; new energy electric vehicles, robots, drones and aircraft and other new industries will expand the potential demand for electrical steel.
From the perspective of apparent consumption, the total consumption of electrical steel will continue to rise in the future. In 2017, the apparent consumption of electrical steel in China was 1,007,100 tons. Among them, the apparent consumption of non-oriented electrical steel was 910.80 million tons, an increase of 18.76%; the apparent consumption of oriented electrical steel was 962,100 tons, down 8.19% year-on-year. It can be clearly seen from the above data that the apparent consumption of non-oriented electrical steel is increasing, and the apparent consumption of oriented electrical steel is decreasing. The data shows that the output of major downstream industries increased in 2017. For example, the total installed capacity of power generation equipment in China is 1.75 billion kilowatts, and the estimated installed capacity is about 125 million kilowatts. The total output of power generation equipment of the three major power groups is 77.092 million kilowatts, including 30,427,700 kilowatts of Dongfang Electric, 14,137,500 kilowatts of Harbin Electric, and 3321.1 Shanghai Electric. Ten thousand kilowatts; China's AC motor completed a production of 28,200 kilowatts, an increase of 10.04%; China's automobiles completed production and sales of 29.015 million, 28.879 million, respectively, for the first time in nine consecutive years.
From the perspective of the development of the power industry, the electrical steel market has broad prospects. First, the construction of distribution network continues to grow. The state will invest 1.5 trillion yuan in power grid construction in the next five years to provide a stable market for distribution transformers. Second, a new round of power grid transformation, energy efficiency improvement of distribution transformers, and redevelopment of infrastructure will bring millions of tons of core material demand. Third, wind power has become China's third largest power source after hydropower and coal power. The ”13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development“ proposes that the installed capacity of wind power grids will reach 210 million kilowatts by the end of 2020, and the annual power generation capacity of wind power will reach 420 billion. Kilowatt hours, accounting for 6% of the country's total power generation, during the ”13th Five-Year Plan“ period, the wind power construction supporting transformer market has a broad space. Fourth, the ”13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development“ proposes that by 2020, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 110 million kilowatts and the power generation will reach 150 billion kilowatt hours. Usually, every two 500 kW generator sets of a solar power plant are equipped with a 1 kVA transformer, which has a high demand for transformers and a large room for growth. Fifth, in the ”13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development“, it is proposed to promote coastal nuclear power construction. By 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 58 million kilowatts. At the same time, nuclear power cooperation projects between China and the United Kingdom, Pakistan, Romania and other countries have been launched. In the 17 countries along the Belt and Road, the CCP plans to develop nuclear power, and the number of planned units is 120. Sixth, according to the Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan, by 2020, the scale of China's railway network will reach 150,000 kilometers, including 30,000 kilometers of high-speed railway. The demand for traction transformers, track power transformers and other signal equipment power transformers will increase significantly. Seventh, ”Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Development Guide 2015~2020“ proposes to build a charging infrastructure system of ”appropriate advancement, truck-pile, intelligent and efficient“ in 2020, including 12,000 charging stations and 4.8 million charging piles. To meet the charging needs of 5 million electric vehicles. It is expected that the next few years will become the peak period of charging pile construction, so the car charging station needs to be equipped with special transformer facilities, which will force the special transformer market.
The market demand for flowering everywhere provides a good development opportunity for the electrical steel industry. The consumption of electrical steel will increase rapidly in the later period, and the production capacity of enterprises will continue to rise. Enterprise opportunities and competition will coexist. To this end, the author suggests that the electrical steel industry should do the following work.
First, implement the national energy conservation and environmental protection policy, speed up the elimination of low-end backward production capacity and non-standard products, actively report to the competent national authorities through industry associations （associations）, and crack down on or prohibit the use of blacks that do not meet national standards and their own energy consumption. The activity of carbon steel to make motor core. At the same time, it is necessary to control the production capacity of electrical steel and new electrical steel projects, especially backward process projects or repetitive projects that have already been saturated, and accelerate the elimination of narrow-belt mills and poor product lines.
The second is to adapt to the new era from high-speed development to high-quality development requirements, research and revision of national standards in advance, eliminate electrical steel products that do not adapt to the market, and accelerate the introduction and implementation of electrical steel green product evaluation standards. Research new electrical steel technology and new technology, continuously optimize process technology, research and develop new products, focus on the development of low-noise transformer oriented electrical steel, ultra-low iron loss oriented electrical steel, ultra-high magnetic induction oriented electrical steel preparation technology. Focus on the development of non-oriented electrical steel for thin gauge non-oriented electrical steel, non-oriented electrical steel for high-end high-efficiency motors, non-oriented electrical steel for medium-frequency high-efficiency motors, high-strength non-oriented electrical steel, and steel for ultra-supercritical motor of more than 1 million kilowatts. Steel for energy storage, high-efficiency energy-saving motor steel, and traffic-driven motors, such as urban rail transit, high-speed rail, subway, new energy electric vehicle motors, drones and high-end home appliances.
The third is to speed up the improvement of the overall quality level of private enterprise electrical steel, solve the problem of low-end production capacity, standardize the market behavior of enterprises, establish a stable, healthy and orderly competitive electrical steel market, and better serve downstream users.